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Bitcoin vs history's biggest bubbles: They never end well
비트코인과 역사적인 대형 거품들의 비교: 끝이 좋았던 적은 결코 없어
 
2018-01-01 조회수:1326
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전세계적으로 비트코인을 비롯한 가상화폐 열풍이 불고 있다. 비트코인은 지폐나 동전과 달리 물리적인 형태가 없는 온라인 가상화폐를 말한다. 지난 2009년에 등장한 이 비트코인은 2013년 지중해 동부에 위치한 키프로스에 금융위기가 닥치면서 주목 받기 시작했다. 키프로스의 고액자산가들이 축적해놓은 막대한 예금으로 비트코인을 사들이면서 20달러이었던 비트코인은 그 해 11월에 1200달러를 돌파했다. 최근에는 중국, 일본 그리고 우리나라를 중심으로 비트코인 사재기가 확산되고 있다. 몇몇 사람들이 엄청난 수익을 거두면서 일반인들에게도 급속하게 회자되며 새로운 투자처로 급부상하게 되었다.

비트코인은 어디에 얼마를 썼는지 일체 확인이 불가능한 익명성이 보장된다는 점에서 도박, 마약, 음란물, 해킹 등 인터넷 불법거래에 주로 사용되고 있다. 가상화폐 거래소를 통해 비트코인을 다시 일반화폐로 바꿀 수 있다는 장점도 있다. 하지만 해킹 등으로 가상화폐 전체가 통째로 사라지거나 하는 위험 요소도 존재해 주의가 필요하다. 일부 전문가들은 1비트코인당 2000만원을 훌쩍 넘길 것이라고 예상하는 반면, 다른 전문가들은 비트코인 등의 가상화폐의 가치가 완전히 사라질 수 있다고 경고하고 있다. 가상화폐는 또 다른 투자 거품일까?
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Is the bitcoin boom about to turn into one of history's biggest busts? (비트코인 열풍이 역사적으로 가장 큰 거품 붕괴로 변할 것인가?)

The digital currency's massive surge this year -- it's up more than 1,400% -- has all the hallmarks of a huge speculative bubble (거대한 투기 거품), according to people such as Warren Buffett.

And if it bursts, the results are likely to be spectacular.

"In terms of how it ends, bubble history suggests it will be with a bang, rather than a whimper (서서히 줄어드는 것이 아니라 빵하고 터질 것이다)," said Sharon Zoller, an economist at ANZ. "I can't think of any reason why this time would be different."

To better understand what may lie ahead, here's the lowdown (내막, 진상) on four famous financial bubbles in history:

Tulip mania (튤립 파동)

In the early 17th century, speculation helped drive the value of tulip bulbs in the Netherlands to previously unheard of prices (네덜란드에서 튤립이 이전에 들어본 적이 없을 정도의 가격으로 몰고 가다). Newly imported from Turkey, tulips were a big novelty at the time.

Hard data from those days is scarce, so it's difficult to gauge exactly how much prices soared. But people were putting up their homes as collateral (사람들이 집을 담보로 잡히다), according to the Rijksmuseum -- the Museum of the Netherlands -- in Amsterdam.

Like many bubbles, prices were driven by greed or the fear of missing out (가격은 욕심과 처질 수 있다는 두려움이 주도했다). Speculators were buying bulbs in the hope that they could sell them on at an even higher price. Again, it didn't last. A flurry of sales caused a domino effect, and prices collapsed (판매 광풍은 도미노 현상을 일으켰으며, 가격은 폭락했다).

Stephen Innes, head of Asian trading at currency broker Oanda, believes bitcoin bubble could go the same way (비트코인 거품도 같은 방향으로 갈 수 있다).

"Prices will become so out of reach of the common man that ultimately demand fades," he said.

South Sea bubble (남해포말사건)

In the 18th century, shares in the South Sea Company, a British trading firm, soared on expectations it would soon reap bumper profits from trade with South America (남아메리카와의 무역으로 곧 엄청난 수익을 거둬들일 것이라는 기대로).

But the big money never materialized.

South America was controlled by Spain, which was at war with the British Empire at the time. That made a British trading monopoly in the region unlikely (이것은 이 지역에서 영국의 독과점을 불가능하게 만들었다), according to the Encylopedia Britannica.

Nevertheless, British mom-and-pop investors (소규모 투자자들) piled into the South Sea Company's stock, which popped about 900% in the space of a year.

Soon afterward, the shares began to plunge as speculators became sellers (투기꾼들이 주식을 팔아 치우면서 주가는 곤두박질치기 시작했다). The South Sea bubble's collapse left a trail of bankruptcies in its wake.

Wall Street Crash of 1929 (1929년의 검은 목요일)

In the five years prior to October 1929's huge crash, stocks listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average skyrocketed 500% (다우존스의 주식들이 500 퍼센트나 급상승했다).

Investors had become very bullish on the U.S. economy during the "Roaring 20s," prompting them to keep bidding stock prices higher. Eventually cracks in the economy started to appear.

The crash didn't happen on just one day. The pain was spread out over several big plunges (그 고통은 여러 차례의 큰 폭락들에 걸쳐 퍼졌다) in the Dow, according to the Federal Reserve.

Making things much worse, many of the investors who had jumped on the bandwagon did so with borrowed money (상황을 더 나쁘게 만든 것은 편승한 많은 투자자들이 빌린 돈으로 투자했기 때문이었다).

The crash led to the tremendous suffering of the Great Depression.

Wall Street didn't find its bottom until more than two years later, when the Dow languished 90% below its 1929 peak (다우 지수는 1929년의 최고치에서 90퍼센트 밑으로 약화되었다).

The dotcom boom (닷컴 버블)

Investors were gripped by an internet frenzy in the late 1990s (투자자들이 1990년대 후반에 인터넷 광풍에 사로잡혔다). They piled into web-focused companies, pushing the Nasdaq index up about 200% in the space of just over a year.

Those gains were fueled by a string of multibillion dollar stock floats during the era, many of which were unprofitable internet and software companies (많은 회사들이 수익을 내지 못하는 인터넷이나 소프트웨어 회사들이었다).

The party didn't last (잔치는 오래가지 않았다). The bubble burst in early 2000, partly because higher interest rates made borrowing pricier. The Nasdaq plunged around 80% over the next couple of years.

But Shane Oliver, an economist at Australia's AMP Capital, said bitcoin's meteoric rise isn't quite like any previous bubbles (비트코인이 갑자기 부상하는 것은 이전 거품과는 완전 다른 것) he's seen before.

"Bitcoin leaves them for dead (비트코인은 투자자들을 죽음으로 내몰게 될 것이다)." he said.
1. Where and when did Tulip mania occur?
      
정답:  Tulip mania occurred in the Netherlands in the early 17th century.

2. Why couldn’t South Sea Company make a British trading monopoly in South America?

      
정답:  South America was controlled by Spain, which was at war with the British.

3. What did Wall Street Crash of 1929 lead in the States?

      
정답:  Wall Street Crash of 1929 led to the tremendous suffering of the Great Depression.

4. What kinds of companies did people invest in during the dotcom boom?

      
정답:  They piled into web-focused companies, and many of them were unprofitable internet and software companies.


Bitcoin has had an incredible year. Its price has skyrocketed more than 1,700% since the start of January. Some experts caution that the digital currency's boom is simply a huge, speculative bubble. But their warnings contrast with moves like those of CME and and CBOE to start bitcoin futures trading. Do you think bitcoin investment is a good investment opportunity or yet another speculative bubble?

비트코인은 정말 엄청난 한 해를 보냈다. 1월부터 그 가격이 1,700퍼센트 넘게 폭등한 것이다. 일부 전문가들은 이 가상화폐 열풍을 단순히 커다란 투기 거품이라고 경고하고 있다. 하지만 그들의 경고는 CEM(상품거래소)이나 시카고옵션거래소 등이 비트코인 선물거래를 시작하는 등의 움직임과는 대조적이다. 당신은 비트코인이 좋은 투자 기회라고 생각하는가 아니면 또 다른 투기 거품이라고 생각하는가?
 
 
 
 

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